According to STL Partners’ Q2 2024 Telco Cloud Deployment Tracker, the window of opportunity for deploying 5G Standalone (SA) networks may be closing before it fully opens. David Martin, Senior Analyst and Head of Telco Cloud at STL Partners, shared in a recent interview with Fierce that despite the numerous commitments operators made in 2021 and 2022 toward 5G SA, many of these pledges remain unmet. “Operators have been nearly silent on the matter,” Martin explained, suggesting that some of the planned deployments “may never materialize.”

A major reason for this hesitation may be the uncertainties surrounding the SA deployments themselves, compounded by a general lack of confidence in deploying 5G SA on public cloud infrastructure. Although 5G SA network functions theoretically align well with public cloud models, concerns over regulatory, performance, security, and resilience impacts have kept operators cautious. This has created a cycle of delay and hesitation—while 5G SA is technologically compatible with the public cloud, operators face significant risks in moving forward without clear confidence in its broader implications.

Martin also suggested that confidence in use cases specifically suited for 5G SA could push operators to consider public cloud deployment. However, so far, commercialized 5G SA use cases have been sparse, with network slicing standing out as one of the few with potential. Yet even with network slicing, telecom operators have struggled to find clear business models and viable paths to commercialization, dampening enthusiasm. Compounding these challenges, many operators are still working to recoup their investments in non-standalone 5G (NSA), which allows them to leverage existing infrastructure while providing improved performance.

Beyond these barriers, some operators may also be deferring 5G SA in favor of newer technologies, such as 5G Advanced and eventually, 6G. These emerging standards offer expanded functionalities and more advanced features. Martin pointed out that while most 5G Advanced applications don’t strictly require standalone capabilities, there is one critical exception—Reduced Capability (RedCap) technology. RedCap relies on the unique benefits of 5G SA, including network slicing and massive machine-type communication (eMTC) capabilities. If RedCap adoption expands, it could serve as a catalyst for more widespread 5G SA implementation among tier-one operators. These operators, having already committed to SA, would then seek returns on their investments through advanced network slicing use cases. Conversely, operators who have not yet embraced SA might continue to wait or shift their focus to 5G Advanced, potentially sidelining SA indefinitely.

In addition to these trends, the Telco Cloud Deployment Tracker highlights a contrastingly optimistic outlook for virtualized and open RAN technologies. vRAN, defined as adhering to open RAN standards but typically delivered by a single vendor, appears to hold more promise. Martin emphasized that operators need not synchronize investments in 5G SA with those in vRAN/Open RAN, and choosing one path does not necessitate or preclude the other.

Looking ahead, 2024 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for commercial vRAN initiatives. Key operators, including AT&T, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, and STC, are set to embark on substantial Open/vRAN projects, some of which may enter commercial operation. According to Martin, the vRAN model presents a more pragmatic approach to realizing open RAN success within the broader 5G ecosystem, potentially accelerating the deployment of innovative solutions that could complement or even outpace 5G SA in terms of tangible benefits for operators.

In conclusion, while 5G SA was once envisioned as a key step in advancing network capabilities, the reality has proven complex and fraught with delays. With operators’ attention increasingly shifting toward vRAN, open RAN, and next-generation technologies like 5G Advanced, the original momentum behind 5G SA deployment seems to be waning. Whether a resurgence in 5G SA commitment will emerge largely hinges on the development of profitable use cases and broader confidence in its integration with the public cloud. However, as new technologies continue to evolve, the timeline for 5G SA may narrow further, challenging operators to make strategic decisions that balance current investments with future innovation.